According to the Cyclone Warning Division/ National Weather Forecasting Centre/Regional Meteorological Centre, New Delhi of the India Meteorological Department, The Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 05 kmph during past 06 hours, intensified into a Cyclonic Strom “NIVAR” and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 24th November, 2020 over southwest Bay of Bengal near about 410 km east-southeast of Puducherry and 450 km southeast of Chennai. It is very likely to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards for next 12 hours and then northwestwards. It is very likely to cross Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts between Karaikal and Mamallapuram around Puducherry during 25th November 2020 evening as a severe cyclonic storm with a wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph.
Forecast track and intensity are given below:
(Lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
|Maximum sustained surface
wind speed (Kmph)
|Category of cyclonic disturbance|
|24.11.20/0530||10.0/83.0||65-75 gusting to 85||Cyclonic Storm|
|24.11.20/1130||10.1/82.7||75-85 gusting to 95||Cyclonic Storm|
|24.11.20/1730||10.2/82.4||85-95 gusting to 105||Cyclonic Storm|
|24.11.20/2330||10.4/81.9||90-100 gusting to 110||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|25.11.20/0530||10.9/81.2||100-110 gusting to 120||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|25.11.20/1730||11.7/80.0||100-110 gusting to 120||Severe Cyclonic Storm|
|26.11.20/0530||12.5/79.0||80-90 gusting to 100||Cyclonic Storm|
|26.11.20/1730||13.5/77.8||50-60 gusting to 70||Deep Depression|
|27.11.20/0530||14.3/76.9||30-40 gusting to 50||Depression|
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall/thunderstorm activity very likely over Tamilnadu, Puducherry & Karaikal during 24th to 26th November and over south Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema during 25thto 26th and Telangana during 26th to 27th November, 2020. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall activity also very likely over Tamilnadu & Puducherry (Pudukottai, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Karaikal, Nagapattinam, Cuddalore, Ariyalur & Perabalu districts during 24th and Kadalur, Kallakurchi, Puducherry, Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Chengalpattu to Ariyalur, Perambalur and Karaikaldistricts during 25th) and over south Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Rayalaseema (Nellore and Chittoor districts) on 25th & 26th and over Telangana on 26th November, 2020.